[..] The Russian General Staff envisages a rapidly growing external threat of war and foreign invasion coming from all directions; and the Kremlin has fully accepted this threat assessment. The coming threat is being referred to as “the resource wars”—a possible future world war or a series of major regional conflicts, predicted to occur sometime “before 2030.” The Russian high command apparently believes that an acute resource crunch will soon overtake the world, as serious shortages of oil, gas and other natural resources cause their prices to skyrocket. Outside powers, primarily the US and its allies, may invade Russia’s massive landmass from different directions to physically grab territory and its resources. These assumptions seem to form the backbone of the top secret Plan of Defense of the Russian Federation, signed into law by Putin on January 29, 2013. On February 14, 2013, the chief of the General Staff, Army-General Valery Gerasimov, publicly disclosed that “before 2030,” all major world powers will be fighting for control of resources and living space (RIA Novosti, February 14, 2013). In anticipation of imminent war, defense spending in 2016 has exceeded 6 percent of Russia’s GDP, with national security and federal law enforcement budgets totaling an additional 3 percent of GDP.[..]
[..] The military believes a drastic cut in defense procurement will curtail its ambitious expansion plans and send the Armed Forces into a state of degradation, like after the Cold War. The Russian military seems ready to fight for its money with everything at its disposal. The best way to keep defense spending high at the expense of the civilian population is to beef up the threat of war and increase international tensions—which has indeed been happening in the second half of 2016. This warmongering will continue into 2017. A distinct possibility exists of provocations and local clashes between Russian and Western (US) militaries in Syria, in the Baltic, in the Black Sea or elsewhere. [..]
vara bungas: Tramps uzvarēja – naftas cenas krit, RU budžetam būs vēl lielākas grūtības nodrošināt RU armijas izaugsmi, RU vanagiem – “silovikiem” nāksies meklēt papildu argumentus kā pierādīt saviem finansistiem, ka “draudi ir” – labākais veids – ierobežots konflikts ar kādu (NATO) ne-kodlvalsti. To nesaku es, to prognozē Jamestown Foundation, kas ar pārsteidzīgiem secinājumiem parasti nebārstās, tomēr mēdz klūdīties (jo īpaši P.Felgenhauers).
Es tikai vēršu uzmanību, ka draudīgākais periods būs līdz 2017.gada pavasarim, kad LV (un citur) ieradīsies un izvērsīsies vadošie vieskaravīri. No tā brīža LV drošibas situācijā kvalitatīvi mainīsies (nav ar ko īpaši lepoties – NBS kaujasspējas faktiski dubultos pat tikai viens CA kājnieku bataljons+). Konvencionāla kara varbūtība tad samazināsies vēl vairāk, bet hibrīdo draudu varbūtība pieaugs un ar tiem būs jātiek galā pašiem, NATO tur maz var līdzēt.
Vēl viena prognoze, kas apstiprina šos pieņēmumus:
The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States is unlikely to change Russia’s strategic calculus. Russia will continue to seek to maximize its status in the world, possibly by proposing a deal where the United States recognizes its sphere of influence in its immediate neighborhood in exchange for a more cooperative relationship globally. Such a trade would legitimize Russia as a global great power while avoiding the need to expend scarce resources on a global fight for influence with the United States.
Dmitry Gorenburg ,Senior Research Scientist at CNA Corporation and Associate at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University
sākums “Kas viņiem galvās”-1